The Volvo Fallacy occurs when the vividness of a recent memory, or the strikingness of an unusual event, leads one to overestimate the probability of events of that type occurring, especially if one has access to better evidence of the frequency of such events. For instance, in the Thought Experiment, if the vividness of your acquaintance’s brother-in-law’s experience is enough to change your decision to buy the Volvo, you have committed the fallacy.
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